A Methodology to Quantify the Cost of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies

The importance of supply chain risk management has grown exponentially since the onset of COVID-19.

The importance of supply chain risk management has grown exponentially since the onset of COVID-19.

You are the manager of a firm’s large global supply chain. The philosophy that guides your network planning decision-making is to minimize total landed costs subject to meeting defined customer service goals. In recent years, especially since the onset of COVID-19 and the supply chain vulnerabilities exposed and unleashed by this pandemic, you have struggled to find the right balance between minimizing costs and minimizing risks. In particular, how do you quantify the costs of different risk mitigation strategies such as using additional suppliers in disparate geographies, maintaining extra plants and/or capacity, and other similar strategies? How can you view these decisions from a holistic perspective?

In this article, we offer an illustration of a technique to develop a quantitative perspective on the cost of risk management strategies. This quantitative approach can be coupled with other more qualitative factors to facilitate the development of a well-informed supply chain risk management decision-making process and strategy.

We begin with a brief review of the types of risk that firms must assess in creating their risk management strategy. This review provides background context for the methodology we will introduce. Further, recognizing that we cannot explore in detail the topic of risk management strategies in this short article, we also provide additional references at the end of this article for readers interested in exploring this topic in depth. After our brief review of risk types and strategies, we then present our risk management quantitative methodology using a manufacturing network design strategy example for illustrative purposes.

Risks in Developing a Supply Chain Risk Management Strategy

When constructing a supply chain risk management strategy, a firm can assure that it undertakes a holistic view of all potential threats by first evaluating general categories of risk, and then considering specific individual risks. Why take this two-step approach? The danger of immediately focusing on a few specific known risks to a firm before first performing a broad review across all risk types is that immediately diving into specifics may cause some less obvious but important risks to be overlooked. Hence the need for a two-step approach.

Quantitative Methodology for Supply Chain Risk Management Assessment

To illustrate our methodology for quantifying the cost of a supply chain risk management strategy, let’s assume that a firm is developing its global manufacturing and distribution network strategy for the next three to five years. In this example, we will focus on plant locations and capacity plans, and note that a similar process would occur for distribution network locations. For illustrative purposes, we narrow our example to evaluations of supply, operational and natural risks only.

Conclusion

The relative importance of supply chain risk management was increasing rapidly in practice prior to the coronavirus pandemic, and it has grown exponentially since the onset of COVID-19. Making well-informed decisions on the appropriate level of risk mitigation actions to invest in represents a difficult challenge for a firm and its supply chain professionals. Good decision-making requires a careful balancing of both qualitative and quantitative factors.

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Future-proofing the supply chain

Future-proofing the supply chain

Future-proofing the supply chain

Supply chains matter. The plumbing of global commerce has rarely been a topic of much discussion in newsrooms or boardrooms, but the past two years have pushed the subject to the top of the agenda. The COVID-19 crisis, postpandemic economic effects, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have exposed the vulnerabilities of today’s global supply chains. They have also made heroes of the teams that keep products flowing in a complex, uncertain, and fast-changing environment. Supply chain leaders now find themselves in an unfamiliar position: they have the attention of top management and a mandate to make real change.

Forward-thinking chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to future-proof their supply chains. And they can do that by recognizing the three new priorities alongside the function’s traditional objectives of cost/capital, quality, and service and redesigning their supply chains accordingly.

The first of these new priorities, resilience, addresses the challenges that have made supply chain a widespread topic of conversation. The second, agility, will equip companies with the ability to meet rapidly evolving, and increasingly volatile, customer and consumer needs. The third, sustainability, recognizes the key role that supply chains will play in the transition to a clean and socially just economy.

Boosting supply chain resilience

Supply chains have always been vulnerable to disruption. Prepandemic research by the McKinsey Global Institute found that, on average, companies experience a disruption of one to two months in duration every 3.7 years. In the consumer goods sector, for example, the financial fallout of these disruptions over a decade is likely to equal 30 percent of one year’s EBITDA.

Historical data also show that these costs are not inevitable. In 2011, Toyota suffered six months of reduced production following the devastating Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. But the carmaker revamped its production strategy, regionalized supply chains, and addressed supplier vulnerabilities. When another major earthquake hit Japan in April 2016, Toyota was able to resume production after only two weeks.

During the pandemic’s early stages, sportswear maker Nike accelerated a supply chain technology program that used radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to track products flowing through outsourced manufacturing operations. The company also used predictive-demand analytics to minimize the impact of store closures across China. By rerouting inventory from in-store to digital-sales channels and acting early to minimize excess inventory buildup across its network, the company was able to limit sales declines in the region to just 5 percent. Over the same period, major competitors suffered much more significant drops in sales.

Supply chain risk manifests at the intersection of vulnerability and exposure to unforeseen events (Exhibit 2). The first step in mitigating that risk is a clear understanding of the organization’s supply chain vulnerabilities. Which suppliers, processes, or facilities present potential single points of failure in the supply chain? Which critical inputs are at risk from shortages or price volatility?

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Coupa Software: four tips for reducing supply chain risk

Coupa Software: four tips for reducing supply chain risk

Coupa Software: four tips for reducing supply chain risk

The cloud platform for business spend management, Coupa Software, drives “Value as a Service” by helping customers to achieve significant cost savings.

As is the case with every supply chain, there is always risks that must be considered. These risks could be financial, cyber, legal or fraud and business leaders have a responsibility to consistently work to overcome these risks. Coupa has compiled four spend management decisions to help cut supply chain risk.

1. Automate compliance verification

In order to decrease risk in company’s supply chains, organisations must ensure is audit-ready and fully compliant. There’s an importance to ensure every vendor is compliant with relevant standards and observe the tolerance for risk. The process includes checking vendor credit ratings, financial liabilities, legal judgements as well as other details.

2. Utilise the insights of the business community

With some companies undergoing regular checks on its vendors to obtain credit reports from third-party sources, best-of-breed business service management (BSM) technology accelerates this. Based on a range of sources such as income statements, court documents and news articles, BSM algorithms quantifies financial, judicial and public sentiment health of each supplier.

3. Enable real-time visibility for spend-at-risk

Recognising and understand the risk that comes from each supplier is vital to ensuring information is married with the actual spend of the organisation. In the supply chain space, being proactive is key due to the pace of which the world moves. By operating with an agile approach, it allows businesses to adapt to situations that weren’t accounted for, such as trade sanctions, currency fluctuations and natural disasters.

4. Control in-flight transactions to mitigate risk

The importance of supply availability is key. Understanding and identifying these risks before they develop is vital to ensuring businesses protect guard against such threats. BSM processes should enable clear visibility of transactions that are linked with supplier risk.

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How To Improve Supply Chains With Machine Learning: 10 Proven Ways

Bottom line: Enterprises are attaining double-digit improvements in forecast error rates, demand planning productivity, cost reductions and on-time shipments using machine learning today, revolutionizing supply chain management in the process.

Machine learning algorithms and the models they’re based on excel at finding anomalies, patterns and predictive insights in large data sets. Many supply chain challenges are time, cost and resource constraint-based, making machine learning an ideal technology to solve them. From Amazon’s Kiva robotics relying on machine learning to improve accuracy, speed and scale to DHL relying on AI and machine learning to power their Predictive Network Management system that analyzes 58 different parameters of internal data to identify the top factors influencing shipment delays, machine learning is defining the next generation of supply chain management. Gartner predicts that by 2020, 95% of Supply Chain Planning (SCP) vendors will be relying on supervised and unsupervised machine learning in their solutions. Gartner is also predicting by 2023 intelligent algorithms, and AI techniques will be an embedded or augmented component across 25% of all supply chain technology solutions.

The ten ways that machine learning is revolutionizing supply chain management include:

  1. Machine learning-based algorithms are the foundation of the next generation of logistics technologies, with the most significant gains being made with advanced resource scheduling systems.
  2. The wide variation in data sets generated from the Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, telematics, intelligent transport systems, and traffic data have the potential to deliver the most value to improving supply chains by using machine learning.
  3. Machine learning shows the potential to reduce logistics costs by finding patterns in track-and-trace data captured using IoT-enabled sensors, contributing to $6M in annual savings.
  4. Reducing forecast errors up to 50% is achievable using machine learning-based techniques.
  5. DHL Research is finding that machine learning enables logistics and supply chain operations to optimize capacity utilization, improve customer experience, reduce risk, and create new business models.
  6. Detecting and acting on inconsistent supplier quality levels and deliveries using machine learning-based applications is an area manufacturers are investing in today.
  7. Reducing risk and the potential for fraud, while improving the product and process quality based on insights gained from machine learning is forcing inspection’s inflection point across supply chains today.
  8. Machine learning is making rapid gains in end-to-end supply chain visibility possible, providing predictive and prescriptive insights that are helping companies react faster than before.
  9. Machine learning is proving to be foundational for thwarting privileged credential abuse which is the leading cause of security breaches across global supply chains.
  10. Capitalizing on machine learning to predict preventative maintenance for freight and logistics machinery based on IoT data is improving asset utilization and reducing operating costs.

Read more at How To Improve Supply Chains With Machine Learning: 10 Proven Ways

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The Right Solution for Contractor and Supplier Management

The benefits of outsourcing to suppliers and contractors is clear, but the associated risks are largely unseen, and the breakneck pace of change and the pressures of financial reality can cause important, risk-mitigating considerations such as contractor safety to be overlooked – which could be not only an ethical disaster but a business disaster as well.

Choosing the right solution

Contractors and suppliers can provide many essential benefits to businesses such as expertise, efficiency, and cost savings.

In addition, companies working with contractors and suppliers can scale their business up and down depending on market demand.

The benefits of outsourcing to suppliers and contractors is clear, but the associated risks are largely unseen.

To add fuel to the fire, the breakneck pace of change and the pressures of financial reality can cause important, risk-mitigating considerations such as contractor safety to be overlooked – which could be not only an ethical disaster but a business disaster as well.

Contractors working on your site and suppliers providing materials should be considered internal employees.

If contractors are injured on the job, it can seriously damage your organization’s reputation and impede your growth.

To maximize the benefit and minimize the risk of these relationships, companies and their suppliers must commit to a common culture of safety.

This means companies need to stay engaged with their contractors beyond simply hiring them. Companies should:

  1. Regularly collect information from their suppliers that demonstrate a commitment to safety such as incident rates (lagging indicators) and safety programs (leading indicators).
  2. Continuously monitor suppliers’ insurance coverage to protect the company in case something does happen.
  3. Audit worksites on a consistent basis to ensure that safety policies are enforced.
  4. Monitor the condition of equipment that contractors use to carry out their jobs.
  5. Ensure each contracted worker has the proper licenses and certifications to perform the job safely.
  6. Provide site-specific training required for each position.

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The Right Solution for Contractor and Supplier Management

The benefits of outsourcing to suppliers and contractors is clear, but the associated risks are largely unseen, and the breakneck pace of change and the pressures of financial reality can cause important, risk-mitigating considerations such as contractor safety to be overlooked – which could be not only an ethical disaster but a business disaster as well.

Contractors and suppliers can provide many essential benefits to businesses such as expertise, efficiency, and cost savings.

In addition, companies working with contractors and suppliers can scale their business up and down depending on market demand.

The benefits of outsourcing to suppliers and contractors is clear, but the associated risks are largely unseen.

To add fuel to the fire, the breakneck pace of change and the pressures of financial reality can cause important, risk-mitigating considerations such as contractor safety to be overlooked – which could be not only an ethical disaster but a business disaster as well.

Contractors working on your site and suppliers providing materials should be considered internal employees.

If contractors are injured on the job, it can seriously damage your organization’s reputation and impede your growth.

To maximize the benefit and minimize the risk of these relationships, companies and their suppliers must commit to a common culture of safety.

This means companies need to stay engaged with their contractors beyond simply hiring them. Companies should:

  1. Regularly collect information from their suppliers that demonstrate a commitment to safety such as incident rates (lagging indicators) and safety programs (leading indicators).
  2. Continuously monitor suppliers’ insurance coverage to protect the company in case something does happen.
  3. Audit worksites on a consistent basis to ensure that safety policies are enforced.
  4. Monitor the condition of equipment that contractors use to carry out their jobs.
  5. Ensure each contracted worker has the proper licenses and certifications to perform the job safely.
  6. Provide site-specific training required for each position.

Read more at The Right Solution for Contractor and Supplier Management

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The secret to making customers care about supply chain

Imagine a world where customers care about how products are sourced, made, and delivered, understand what goes into pricing, and generally take great joy in the experience. A world where customers are fluent in the language of supply chain.

It’s not as farfetched as you may think.

Supply chains solve complex problems. And in the company of supply chain professionals, we use big words and complicated terms to talk about it. Words like multi-modal logistics and global transportation, mass-customisation and postponement, procurement and letters of credit, demand management, the cost of inventory and buffer stock, assurance of supply, warehousing, and the last mile.

We nitpick over the differences between distribution and fulfilment centres, debate the true definition of supply chain visibility and the role of control towers to support orchestration across a complex network of suppliers, trading partners, and carriers. And we’re still not sure if our industries are facing an apocalypse or simply working through the growing pains of transformation in the digital age.

It’s a mouthful. And as we dive into the technical details and jargon that comprise the modern language of supply chain, one can’t help but picture the average consumer’s eyes glazing over.

But that’s not necessarily the case. There’s mounting evidence people care more about supply chain than ever – they’re just not using our words for it.

Therein lies the secret.

The words used to describe supply chain were different at the recent Shoptalk Europe conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, a gathering of more than 2,500 retailers, start-ups, technologists, and investors all focused on the worlds of retail, fashion, and ecommerce. Though most attendees weren’t purely in the business of operations and supply chain, all were exploring how to reach, engage, and enlighten the customer wherever and whenever they might choose to shop.

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How incorporating IoT into the cold supply chain could save florists millions this Mother’s Day

A leading expert claims that the flower industry could save hundreds of millions of dollars just by ensuring supply chain efficiency in the lead-up to Mother’s Day.

Shipments in the floral industry spike ten-fold in the lead up to Mother’s Day and an estimated $2.6 billion is expected to be spent in 2017 even though it’s estimated that 40 per cent of flowers are never even sold.

David Bairstow, Product VP at location specialists Skyhook, reckons that incorporating the internet of things into the cold supply chain could result in massive savings.

He said: “Supply chain is an industry born out of economies of scale. The same applies to the cost of implementing IoT, as scale increases, return on investment increases. It costs pennies to ship individual flowers; however, using supply chain insights to increase efficiencies and reduce waste, can quickly pay for itself.

“Factoring in that the 40% waste due to unsold flowers amounts to $1.04 billion, it is evident that there is massive scope for improvement. If introducing IoT into the cold supply chain leads to decrease in waste by even 10%, that would result in more than $100 million of savings.”

Companies like KaBloom are constantly optimizing the day-to-day supply chain over time to achieve the most efficient path to the consumer. They see a ten-fold increase in volume on days like Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day and their supply chain remains largely the same, except for the increased volume on those holidays so if the day-to-day efficiencies are optimized, the likelihood of failures happening on the busiest days can be drastically reduced.

Read more How incorporating IoT into the cold supply chain could save florists millions this Mother’s Day

Why Supply Chains Need Business Intelligence

Companies that want to effectively manage their supply chain must invest in business intelligence (BI) software, according to a recent Aberdeen Group survey of supply chain professionals. Survey respondents reported the main issues that drive BI initiatives include increased global operations complexity; lack of visibility into the supply chain; a need to improve top-line revenue; and increased exposure to risk in the supply chain. Fluctuating fuel costs, import/export restrictions and challenges, and thin profit margins are driving the need for businesses to clearly understand all the factors that affect their bottom line.

Business Intelligence essentially means converting the sea of data into knowledge for effective business use. Organizations have huge operational data that can be used for trend analysis and business strategies. To operate more efficiently, increase revenues, and foster collaboration among trading partners companies should implement BI software that illuminates the meaning behind the data.

There is a vast amount of data to collect and track within a supply chain, such as transportation costs, repair costs, key performance indicators on suppliers and carriers, and maintenance trends. Being able to drill down into this information to perform analysis and observe historical trends gives companies the game-changing information they need to transform their business.

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Why Supply Chain Risk Management is Key to Supplier Management

While brand damage can be quite costly to the businesses whose sales rely strongly on the customer loyalty they generate from their brand strength, cost volatility and supply disruption is very costly to all manufacturers. In fact, in the latest 2015 study by the Business Continuity Institute, supply chain disruption is double in priority relative to other enterprise disruptions and over three-fourths of respondents cited that they had at least one recent (significant) disruption. The same percentage didn’t have full visibility of their supply chains.

While category management can address and even reduce supply chain risk by ensuring a chosen strategy has the right level of resiliency, prevention and agility, it cannot prevent risk or do much to eliminate the source of risk once something has happened. That can only be done by each party in the supply chain doing everything they can to eliminate the risk. In particular, a supplier needs to do all they can to minimize the risk on their end.

However, not all suppliers are as advanced in supply chain management, and in particular, risk management as the buying organization. That’s why good supplier management combined with SCRM is key. Good risk management is a combination of risk prevention and risk mitigation when a risk is detected. Risk prevention involves selecting suppliers, products and services that are low risk and risk mitigation involves taking action as soon as an indicator is detected.

A supplier is not always good at mitigating or even detecting risk in its supply chain, or may overlook an obvious sign that an observant buyer would not, which is why proper supplier management is key. This begins even when qualifying suppliers. Including risk criteria related to the supplier and supplier location gives a good indication of a supplier’s the risk level. Besides the supplier qualification criteria, supply location-related risks provide an overview on potential threats like natural disasters, political situation, sanctions or economic risk. This gives buyers the chance to take preventive actions.

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