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Resilient Supply Chains in a Politically Uncertain World

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Resilient Supply Chains in a Politically Uncertain World

Resilient Supply Chains in a Politically Uncertain World

The Resilient Supply Chain

Today, the supply chain world iterates faster than at any other point in history. Disruptions – whether related to climate change, trade wars, or a no-deal Brexit – are a given, and black swan events aren’t surprises anymore. We know that the next event is coming fast and supply chains will have to react. So why have we not burned that understanding into our business DNA? Why are we still trying to leverage strategies developed 50 years ago and technologies unaligned to today’s needs?

What I mean is that every supply chain, everywhere, should be prepared at a moment’s notice to shut down, pivot, and spin up whatever operations it needs to, wherever it needs them. I’m of the strong opinion that if supply chain professionals reframe their thinking and look at uncertainties as opportunities then they will thrive. This thought came to me while reading an article on US trade disputes with China, or maybe it was an article on Brexit.

While I understand how conflicts arise, I have a hard time accepting why they are as adversely impactful to supply chains as they are. Contingency planning should cover for every possibility, and the overreliance on any single supplier or region is not smart business anymore. If the year was 1492 or 1839 or 1979, I could understand the desire to optimize a linear supply chain. That’s not the case today. With the advent of cloud technology and the reality of global markets – fallout from any one country’s instability or trade war can be mitigated.

Three Legs of a Resilient Supply Chain:

  1. Availability: For systems to work they need to be ON. As long as power and cloud servers exist, then a supply chain cannot be existentially threatened.
  2. Operational Flexibility and Configuration: Facilities available on a single network eliminate siloes and allow for customized configuration.
  3. More Control: Control is based on visibility, on knowing and seeing exactly where inventory is all the time.

What About Lost Goods?

Declare them lost, minimize losses, and deal with the repercussions.

Over the last two generations, western economies relied on an uncompetitive market to produce goods. Since 2010 the world has effectively been relying on an industrial monopoly.

It may have seemed like a good idea to rely on a single, cheap source of manufacturing fifty years ago. However, by choosing this path, countries damaged their own manufacturing economies.

They also exposed themselves to the exclusive possession and control of that same, supplier. That’s when the system naturally started to collapse. And that’s when the world began to see price-fixing and currency manipulation, among other signs of deterioration. What would you do if you ran a monopoly?

A dearth of suppliers is what companies are now contending with. There is no easy way out.

Read more at Resilient Supply Chains in a Politically Uncertain World

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Beyond the Economic Downturn: Recession Strategies to Take the Lead Now!

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Predicting a Recession

It’s overdue. Predicting the onset of a recession is difficult, but a downturn likely will arrive soon, with the current economic expansion now more than 10 years old, long by historical standards.

Signs of overleverage in the corporate sector, combined with geopolitical uncertainty – including the China-US trade war, Brexit and economic instability in some European countries – suggest the next recession is not far off.

For corporate leaders, however, the exact timing and duration of a recession matter less than being ready to seize the moment early, when they have more options. Getting ahead of the curve avoids the painful alternative – being forced to react hastily in a crisis. Bain & Company research shows that well-prepared companies emerged as winners during and after past recessions. They managed a strong defense and offense in parallel, reining in costs while simultaneously reinvesting in growth.

The next downturn will figure as just one element roiling the global economy. Several structural changes will combine to sound the starting gun to a new business cycle, including:

The end of the nontech business.

An array of evolving technologies will substantially alter customer behavior and demand in many sectors, disrupting both volume and price. In the automotive industry, shared mobility services and the shift to autonomous and electric vehicles could gut the economic returns of many manufacturing plants and assets in six to eight years – just one product cycle. In retail, digital-first insurgent brands with healthy balance sheets may take even more market share in a downturn, compounding the damage to many traditional retailers.

At the same time, new technologies are ramping up efficiencies in areas such as supply chain and manufacturing. Automation technologies, in particular, will accelerate to help companies address the dwindling supply of labor as more baby boomers move into retirement and labor force growth slows.

The end of low-interest rates.

Interest rates still hover near a six-decade low (see Figure 1). Even if central bankers hold rates low during a downturn to help stimulate their economies, we expect to see rates eventually rise. This potential change in the interest rate environment will be a new regime for most management teams and should prompt them to take a multiyear view of their capital structure and the timing of investments. A higher cost of capital will put pressure on capital spending, so if companies want to invest in technology, growth opportunities or acquisitions, the time is now.

Downturns Upend the Playing Field

These long-term trends will harden the divide between winners and losers, favoring those who act before the downturn. Headed into the global financial crisis a decade ago, a group of almost 3,900 companies worldwide that we ran through Bain’s Sustained Value Creators analysis posted double-digit earnings growth, on average, from 2003 to 2007. As soon as the storm hit, performance diverged sharply: The winners grew at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the downturn, compared with 0% among the losers. What’s more, the winners locked in gains to grow at an average 13% CAGR in the years after the downturn, while the losers stalled at 1%.

Read more at Beyond the Economic Downturn: Recession Strategies to Take the Lead Now!

Analysis – what impact will Brexit have on supply chain operations?

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Brexit is a great uncertainty for businesses operating cross-border. Therefore, it is crucial for companies operating complex supply chains to consider the implications of Brexit on their businesses.

A PESTLE is an analysis tool that provides an understanding of the factors and external changes to the business, which may impact their ability to operate and thrive.

In this article, Nicholas Hallam considers the elements of Brexit that are out of the control and influence of businesses, but which they should still be planning for, as well as the proactive steps they can take to guide strategic decision making.

Political

Brexit has been an intensely political issue – from the original promise of the In/Out referendum (made by David Cameron to prevent a haemorrhaging of Tory support to UKIP) right through to the political and legal disputes about the triggering of Article 50 and the ongoing controversy about the trade-off between free movement and the single market. The debate – which cuts across traditional political alignments – pits sovereignty against efficiency, and the citizens of definite somewhere against free-flowing globalists.

Economic

The UK runs a constant trade deficit with the EU. While the UK’s biggest individual export trade partner is the US, over 62% of all exports went to the 27 EU Member States during Q1 2017, totalling £33.1 billion. And during this time-period the UK’s top import partner was also an EU Member State, Germany (£17.6 billion worth of goods).

Social

While Brexit essentially means untangling the links that the UK has with the EU, there are many ways in which we will stay connected irreversibly. Some of the biggest technological advances in recent years – such as smart phones and social media – have been made to connect people no matter their location, language or economic status. So, while the government may have a protectionist ethos, it may be increasingly impractical to implement to live up to most people’s expectations and habits.

Read more at Analysis – what impact will Brexit have on supply chain operations?

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