Predicting a Recession
It’s overdue. Predicting the onset of a recession is difficult, but a downturn likely will arrive soon, with the current economic expansion now more than 10 years old, long by historical standards.
Signs of overleverage in the corporate sector, combined with geopolitical uncertainty – including the China-US trade war, Brexit and economic instability in some European countries – suggest the next recession is not far off.
For corporate leaders, however, the exact timing and duration of a recession matter less than being ready to seize the moment early, when they have more options. Getting ahead of the curve avoids the painful alternative – being forced to react hastily in a crisis. Bain & Company research shows that well-prepared companies emerged as winners during and after past recessions. They managed a strong defense and offense in parallel, reining in costs while simultaneously reinvesting in growth.
The next downturn will figure as just one element roiling the global economy. Several structural changes will combine to sound the starting gun to a new business cycle, including:
The end of the nontech business.
An array of evolving technologies will substantially alter customer behavior and demand in many sectors, disrupting both volume and price. In the automotive industry, shared mobility services and the shift to autonomous and electric vehicles could gut the economic returns of many manufacturing plants and assets in six to eight years – just one product cycle. In retail, digital-first insurgent brands with healthy balance sheets may take even more market share in a downturn, compounding the damage to many traditional retailers.
At the same time, new technologies are ramping up efficiencies in areas such as supply chain and manufacturing. Automation technologies, in particular, will accelerate to help companies address the dwindling supply of labor as more baby boomers move into retirement and labor force growth slows.
The end of low-interest rates.
Interest rates still hover near a six-decade low (see Figure 1). Even if central bankers hold rates low during a downturn to help stimulate their economies, we expect to see rates eventually rise. This potential change in the interest rate environment will be a new regime for most management teams and should prompt them to take a multiyear view of their capital structure and the timing of investments. A higher cost of capital will put pressure on capital spending, so if companies want to invest in technology, growth opportunities or acquisitions, the time is now.
Downturns Upend the Playing Field
These long-term trends will harden the divide between winners and losers, favoring those who act before the downturn. Headed into the global financial crisis a decade ago, a group of almost 3,900 companies worldwide that we ran through Bain’s Sustained Value Creators analysis posted double-digit earnings growth, on average, from 2003 to 2007. As soon as the storm hit, performance diverged sharply: The winners grew at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the downturn, compared with 0% among the losers. What’s more, the winners locked in gains to grow at an average 13% CAGR in the years after the downturn, while the losers stalled at 1%.
Read more at Beyond the Economic Downturn: Recession Strategies to Take the Lead Now!
Tag Archives: expansion
How LLamasoft Is Designing Success For Customers’ Supply Chains
Ann Arbor, Michigan-based supply chain design software business LLamasoft is considered one of the fastest growing technology companies in North America. The company was founded by Don Hicks and Toby Brzoznowski in the late 1990s, and offers a number of innovative solutions that help some of the world’s best-known brands make smarter, faster decisions about their supply chain operations.
Its flagship software, Supply Chain Guru, is used for optimizing and simulating supply chain network operations and modeling potential changes based on performance, costs and risks. Last year, LLamasoft released Supply Chain Guru X, the newest generation of its software, which enables companies to build living models of their end-to-end supply chains. Customers can easily visualize inefficiencies, optimize for significant improvements in cost, service and risk, and test hundreds of potential scenarios for continuous supply chain improvement and innovation. Also released was Demand Guru, a new solution that empowers companies to improve their supply chain design and strategic business initiatives by incorporating powerful causative demand modeling.
In 2012, LLamasoft raised $6 million in funding, led by MK Capital. Nike also became a strategic investment partner that year, taking a minority share in October. Jumping forward to 2015, LLamasoft had a big year – acquiring IBM’s LogicTools supply chain applications business, raising $50 million in Series B funding from Goldman Sachs to fund expansion and R&D, and acquiring South Africa-based Barloworld.
Several months ago, TPG Capital, the investment group behind companies like Uber, McAfee and Airbnb, invested over $200 million in LLamasoft after seeing great promise in the company and fully understanding the value its technology delivers to customers.
Today, LLamasoft counts among its 700 customers companies such as Michael Kors, Land O’ Lakes, Johnson & Johnson, and Wayfair. The company estimates that it signs 30 to 40 new clients per quarter. When I asked Brzoznowski if he could share some of LLamasoft’s customer success stories, he pointed out a few recent examples of customer use cases including Michael Kors, U.S. Silica, Hewlett-Packard and Johnson & Johnson.
Read more at How LLamasoft Is Designing Success For Customers’ Supply Chains
What do you think about this topic? If you want to discuss anything, please send us your questions or write it in the comment box. Subscribe us to be the first one to get updates.
