Black Friday Archives - Supply Chain Institute

THE CHRISTMAS SUPPLY CHAIN: MORE ‘HO HO HO’, LESS ‘OH NO NO’

In the United States the day after Thanksgiving is known as Black Friday. Originally it earned its name because of the disruption caused by the post holiday crowds. Lately, however, Black Friday earns its moniker because it’s the day when U.S. retailers supposedly hit profitability for the year. Falling as it does in late November it’s become the busiest shopping day in the American calendar.

Managing seasons and public holidays is a never-ending task for retailers. If there isn’t a public holiday then there will be a new season starting, or another one wrapping up with a sale.

Of all these special events, Christmas is undoubtedly the most important, and puts enormous pressure on supply chain managers to ensure products are available and that everything moves smoothly through the season. After all, it is the weeks just before Christmas that, in many retail sectors, determine a business’s financial health; John Lewis, for instance, reportedly generates 80% of its annual profits during Christmas period.

The challenges that retailers face during Christmas naturally vary according on the sector and from company to company. For many specialty retailers, having to cope with long lead times, Christmas challenges centre around estimating the season’s demand both well in advance and accurately; not an easy task. For grocers the problem is less about lead times and longterm forecasting but more the sheer volume of everything, which requires careful capacity planning and good execution. Lastly there are those retailers for whom Christmas is a nonevent – in fact, one that might even cause sales to drop as customers spend their pennies elsewhere.

Yet while plenty has been written about the Christmas retail season and pages are devoted to analysing Christmas successes and failures, there’s very little been published about the underlying supply chain challenges. So, to address this deficit, here is an overview of the Christmas-related hurdles that supply chains face, with some suggestions on how to tackle them.
Supply chain problems are generally most readily solved one at a time, by continuous improvement of the process, and not by trying to fix everything at once.

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Is Your Supply Chain Ready for the Holidays?

Doug Pasquale, senior vice president of supply chain solutions for Ingram Micro Mobility, shared with Apparel magazine his insights on supply-chain strategies ahead of the crucial holiday season.

1. What are your top three best practices for pre-holiday logistics planning?
First and foremost, have a dedicated holiday supply chain strategy put in place at least six months before the holidays. It’s always a good idea to begin planning immediately following the previous year’s season and engage manufacturers and logistics partners as soon as possible.

2. Holiday supply chain disruptions are inevitable – whether it’s a natural disaster or a sudden shift in consumer demand. In your opinion, how much stock should retailers put in demand forecasting and planning?
There will always be situations that arise causing disruptions in a supply chain — you cannot plan for every possible scenario. I am a big advocate for sophisticated demand forecasting and planning, but retailers should also bear in mind they don’t have a crystal ball.

3. What advice could you give apparel retailers at the holidays based on your experience working with mobile device retailers?
The mobile device retail industry isn’t as removed from the apparel industry as it might seem at first. Both industries are at the mercy of quickly changing consumer demand, and overseas production is common. However, the mobile device industry tends to move at a faster pace – while most retailers change their stock of clothes by season, mobile device retailers are flooded with new technology weekly.

4. With only 26 days between Black Friday and Christmas this year, how does this affect supply chain planning and strategy?
The peak season always puts a crunch on supply chain planning and strategy, but when faced with less time to orchestrate all the activity happening between manufacturers, suppliers and logistics providers, a shortened season leaves little room for error. Even one or two fewer selling days during the peak season can have a potentially negative financial impact in retail if not prepared, so it’s imperative for retailers to open early, clear lines of communication with manufacturers and logistics providers for demand forecasting, inventory needs and delivery dates. Timely communication and information flow is absolutely critical.

5. Where should retailers be on their planning trajectory at this point in the year, and what should the next step be?
Ideally, retailers should have begun their peak season supply chain preparations back in January when cycles were set for the remainder of the year. That is the time to start forecasting demand and working with manufacturers to strategize product portfolio, market demand, stocking, and returns preparation. By this point in the season, retailers should be fine-tuning any adjustments to that strategy and should be well under way with executing it. Retailers currently should be firming up delivery schedules and finalizing promotional packaging designs, special deals, and production schedules to ensure they are ready for the coming busy peak season.

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