Predicting a Recession
It’s overdue. Predicting the onset of a recession is difficult, but a downturn likely will arrive soon, with the current economic expansion now more than 10 years old, long by historical standards.
Signs of overleverage in the corporate sector, combined with geopolitical uncertainty – including the China-US trade war, Brexit and economic instability in some European countries – suggest the next recession is not far off.
For corporate leaders, however, the exact timing and duration of a recession matter less than being ready to seize the moment early, when they have more options. Getting ahead of the curve avoids the painful alternative – being forced to react hastily in a crisis. Bain & Company research shows that well-prepared companies emerged as winners during and after past recessions. They managed a strong defense and offense in parallel, reining in costs while simultaneously reinvesting in growth.
The next downturn will figure as just one element roiling the global economy. Several structural changes will combine to sound the starting gun to a new business cycle, including:
The end of the nontech business.
An array of evolving technologies will substantially alter customer behavior and demand in many sectors, disrupting both volume and price. In the automotive industry, shared mobility services and the shift to autonomous and electric vehicles could gut the economic returns of many manufacturing plants and assets in six to eight years – just one product cycle. In retail, digital-first insurgent brands with healthy balance sheets may take even more market share in a downturn, compounding the damage to many traditional retailers.
At the same time, new technologies are ramping up efficiencies in areas such as supply chain and manufacturing. Automation technologies, in particular, will accelerate to help companies address the dwindling supply of labor as more baby boomers move into retirement and labor force growth slows.
The end of low-interest rates.
Interest rates still hover near a six-decade low (see Figure 1). Even if central bankers hold rates low during a downturn to help stimulate their economies, we expect to see rates eventually rise. This potential change in the interest rate environment will be a new regime for most management teams and should prompt them to take a multiyear view of their capital structure and the timing of investments. A higher cost of capital will put pressure on capital spending, so if companies want to invest in technology, growth opportunities or acquisitions, the time is now.
Downturns Upend the Playing Field
These long-term trends will harden the divide between winners and losers, favoring those who act before the downturn. Headed into the global financial crisis a decade ago, a group of almost 3,900 companies worldwide that we ran through Bain’s Sustained Value Creators analysis posted double-digit earnings growth, on average, from 2003 to 2007. As soon as the storm hit, performance diverged sharply: The winners grew at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the downturn, compared with 0% among the losers. What’s more, the winners locked in gains to grow at an average 13% CAGR in the years after the downturn, while the losers stalled at 1%.
Read more at Beyond the Economic Downturn: Recession Strategies to Take the Lead Now!
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Comment: Industry 4.0 is disrupting the supply chain for good
The impact of Industry 4.0 could easily be identified as a threat and a disruptor to the traditional supply chain. The truth is that, when deployed correctly, this dynamic combination is the antidote to supply chain disruption.
In 2016, global supply chains were impacted by a series of unfortunate natural disasters including earthquakes and typhoons that ravaged nations throughout Asia. In 2015, analysis by insurance firm Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty found that between 2010 and 2014, the top five causes of business interruption loss globally were fires and explosions, storms, machinery breakdowns, faulty equipment or materials, and workforce strikes.
Current events that are continually unfolding must also be considered, such as the economic nationalism propelled by the election of Donald Trump and the UK’s impending exit from the European Union. However, there are less dramatic situations that can cause supply chain disruption on a more frequent basis – small acts than have a large impact, such as human error causing delays on the production line. This creates an obvious knock-on effect that directly impacts the rest of the supply chain.
It is clear that the supply chain is vulnerable to disruption. The traditional supply chain ecosystem is built around a rigid process that does not provide supply chain organisations with the flexibility to adjust to disruptions that will impact the bottom line, or the opportunity to predict or prepare for those disruptions.
The traditional process is typically governed by inaccurate analysis of the market that dictates supply chain operations in order to meet the predicted sales. A digitised reinvention of the supply chain will replace this inaccurate, siloed process with a flexible and agile solution that utilises data to severely diminish the impact of disruption.
Industry of Things
The moniker Industry 4.0 represents the fourth industrial revolution which in turn refers to the rise of data exchange and automation in manufacturing technologies. ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) is a similar term that supports the same notion of the world becoming more connected and is widely used to describe connected devices used in both industrial and domestic environments. In theory, connected devices, whether in a factory or in the home, bring all of these environments together to create one interconnected eco-system.
Disseminating the data
From the shop floor to the factory floor, each connected device provides important data that can be fed into the digitised supply chain. To be of true value, this data must be tracked and visualised. Visibility is a key area of focus in leveraging data in the evolution of Industry 4.0, and it’s equally as important in the supply chain. Once the data is feeding into the supply chain and clearly visualised, the organisation can begin to think about disruptions before they occur. This can be achieved by manipulating the data in three key areas; supply chain design, event simulation and decision support.
Read more at Comment: Industry 4.0 is disrupting the supply chain for good
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Clarkson University Delivers 17th Global Supply Chain Management Executive Seminar to Corporate Professionals
Earlier this month, Clarkson University’s Global Supply Chain Management (GSCM) program presented its 17th annual Executive Seminar, delivering state-of-the-art education to corporate professionals.
“We are pleased that our executive seminar continues to attract supply chain professionals from several highly respected global companies,” said Professor Farzad Mahmoodi, the Joel Goldschein ’57 Endowed Chair in Global Supply Chain Management and director of the program. “It’s a strong endorsement of the quality of our faculty and the relevance of our curriculum.”
The annual, four-day, on-campus program attracted participants from Amazon, Toyota, Stanley Black & Decker, Xerox, Lockheed Martin, Verizon, Corning, Raymond Corporation, Entegris, Par Technology and Indium.
The participants came to Clarkson from 12 states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Ohio.
In addition to lectures by faculty experts, the seminar utilized a highly interactive format that employs team and hands-on activities, including simulations and negotiations exercises. Participants also benefited from networking opportunities with industry professionals and Clarkson faculty.Read more at Clarkson University Delivers 17th Global Supply Chain Management Executive Seminar to Corporate Professionals
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Accelerating Corporate Performance Management – Partnering Finance & Supply Chain
Corporate Performance Management (CPM) activities time-consuming and labour-intensive, usually because they rely on spreadsheets, old data and outdated manual processes. With financial controls growing increasingly tighter, CPM must be performed effectively. Recently there has been talk of needing Finance and Supply Chain integration to achieve increased corporate performance with them now being key business partners.
The Corporate Performance Management Summit will take place on January 27 & 28, in Miami. Over the two days, the summit will gather over 120+ Finance & Supply Chain professionals to discuss the challenges related to internal performance management and external decision-making. There will be 25+ industry expert keynote speakers, interactive workshops with industry pioneers and over 8 hours of networking opportunities to take advantage of.
Ever considered how to execute performance management initiatives? How to manage external factors in performance management? Or even the role of the CFO in corporate strategy? The summit will explore hot topics such as these, as well as explicitly covering how CFOs can drive strategic performance through acquisitions and harness data to drive decision making. A key component to this summit will also be face-to-face communication and the opportunity to learn from your peers in a truly open environment. ‘The creation of a thought-sharing and interactive setting was always a key aspect for me when creating this summit,’ said Aaron Fraser, International Events Director. ‘I wanted to cultivate a forum for cross-pollination of ideas and advice for those involved in corporate performance management”.
Read more at Accelerating Corporate Performance Management – Partnering Finance & Supply Chain
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