Predicting a Recession
It’s overdue. Predicting the onset of a recession is difficult, but a downturn likely will arrive soon, with the current economic expansion now more than 10 years old, long by historical standards.
Signs of overleverage in the corporate sector, combined with geopolitical uncertainty – including the China-US trade war, Brexit and economic instability in some European countries – suggest the next recession is not far off.
For corporate leaders, however, the exact timing and duration of a recession matter less than being ready to seize the moment early, when they have more options. Getting ahead of the curve avoids the painful alternative – being forced to react hastily in a crisis. Bain & Company research shows that well-prepared companies emerged as winners during and after past recessions. They managed a strong defense and offense in parallel, reining in costs while simultaneously reinvesting in growth.
The next downturn will figure as just one element roiling the global economy. Several structural changes will combine to sound the starting gun to a new business cycle, including:
The end of the nontech business.
An array of evolving technologies will substantially alter customer behavior and demand in many sectors, disrupting both volume and price. In the automotive industry, shared mobility services and the shift to autonomous and electric vehicles could gut the economic returns of many manufacturing plants and assets in six to eight years – just one product cycle. In retail, digital-first insurgent brands with healthy balance sheets may take even more market share in a downturn, compounding the damage to many traditional retailers.
At the same time, new technologies are ramping up efficiencies in areas such as supply chain and manufacturing. Automation technologies, in particular, will accelerate to help companies address the dwindling supply of labor as more baby boomers move into retirement and labor force growth slows.
The end of low-interest rates.
Interest rates still hover near a six-decade low (see Figure 1). Even if central bankers hold rates low during a downturn to help stimulate their economies, we expect to see rates eventually rise. This potential change in the interest rate environment will be a new regime for most management teams and should prompt them to take a multiyear view of their capital structure and the timing of investments. A higher cost of capital will put pressure on capital spending, so if companies want to invest in technology, growth opportunities or acquisitions, the time is now.
Downturns Upend the Playing Field
These long-term trends will harden the divide between winners and losers, favoring those who act before the downturn. Headed into the global financial crisis a decade ago, a group of almost 3,900 companies worldwide that we ran through Bain’s Sustained Value Creators analysis posted double-digit earnings growth, on average, from 2003 to 2007. As soon as the storm hit, performance diverged sharply: The winners grew at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the downturn, compared with 0% among the losers. What’s more, the winners locked in gains to grow at an average 13% CAGR in the years after the downturn, while the losers stalled at 1%.
Read more at Beyond the Economic Downturn: Recession Strategies to Take the Lead Now!
Tag Archives: recession
What’s Behind the Inventory Crisis of 2016?
The last time the inventory-to-sales ratio was this high was 2009, when we were in the throes of the Great Recession – people lost jobs, businesses closed, nobody was spending, nobody was growing.
What does it mean that inventory levels are this high in 2016? Are consumers not spending? Are we headed for another recession? Or are other forces at work?
Well, in April the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending experienced its biggest gain in six years. And while JPMorgan recently reported an increased probability of a recession in the next 12 months, no one’s sounding the alarm bells quite yet. Besides, inventory levels have been high since last fall.
So what else could be at work?
The Marketplace
Traditionally, a drop in consumer demand would cause a short-term build-up of inventory. But businesses would eventually compensate by cutting orders and manufacturers would produce less. But as we’ve seen, demand isn’t going down. And yet, inventory isn’t moving. Why?
One major culprit is the way consumers shop. Their expectations have changed. This is the age of Amazon Prime, Instacart, Uber and Lyft. Free shipping. In-store pick-up. 1-hour delivery. Easy exchanges and returns. Above all – convenience. If it isn’t convenient for a customer to buy something they want, they won’t buy it – or they’ll buy it somewhere else. Fulfillment has usurped the throne of customer satisfaction.
Traditional retailers have struggled because of this. As young, tech-driven start-ups bite into market with the luxury of fresh starts, traditional retailers have tried to stay competitive. One common tactic has been to keep buffer inventory on hand. Out-of-stock inventory kills customer loyalty. Not being able to fulfill quickly kills customer loyalty. But having lots of inventory doesn’t equate to efficient fulfillment. That requires having a modern, flexible supply chain. Without agility, retailers often lack the competence to satisfy customer demand, let alone fulfilling profitably.
Read more at What’s Behind the Inventory Crisis of 2016?
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